The Energy Trilemma: why going green isn't so easy?
Introduction:
This article forms part of the green energy transition series that explores the role that different renewables will play in decarbonising the UK in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. Target 7.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals commits the UK to ‘increasing the share of renewable energy’ in the global energy mix, primarily through developing and deploying clean, sustainable energy. This article will explore the main barriers to the uptake of renewable energy in the UK and how the ‘energy trilemma’ is complicating the UK’s target of net zero by 2050.
The energy ‘trilemma’:
The UK’s drive towards its net zero target and the large-scale, economy-wide decarbonisation needed if the UK is to achieve it has been one of the defining issues of the last decade. In the wake of COP27, after the UK’s climate policies were scrutinised on a global stage, the need to increase the UK’s use of renewable energy is more urgent than ever. Despite this, the UK’s energy sector is a fragile balance of three competing elements: security, affordability and sustainability. These elements together form the ‘energy trilemma’, where all three parts are not only largely incongruent, but each is also competing for primacy.
Security:
Energy security represents the first of the three essential pillars that constitute the ‘energy trilemma’, and its importance is difficult to overstate. Last year, the government published its 2022 ‘Energy Security Strategy’ which outlined how one of the primary goals of the UK is to shift its reliance upon ‘volatile international energy markets’ to homegrown, clean electricity.
The Russia-Ukraine war has recently brought the importance of energy security to the forefront of public discourse, with inflated energy prices and the ‘cost of living crisis’ highlighting the vulnerability of those countries that rely heavily on oil and gas imports. Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps said:
‘We have seen over the past year what can happen when global energy supplies are disrupted, and a tyrant like Putin uses energy as a weapon. Access to cheap, abundant and reliable energy provides the foundation stone of a thriving economy with our homes and businesses relying on it to deliver our future prosperity’.
Affordability:
The issue of affordability in the ‘energy trilemma’ is another critical component of the UK's energy sector. Whilst the uptake of renewable energy may accelerate the UK’s drive toward carbon neutrality, the accessibility and affordability of such energy sources are paramount to ensuring that the benefits of this transition are fully realised.
Historically, electricity sourced from fossil fuels has been significantly less expensive than producing it from renewable sources. However, for the first time ever, renewable energy is now cheaper than that produced from non-renewable sources. Whilst this does bode well for the simultaneous achievement of the affordability and sustainability elements of the trilemma, it is essential to note that the UK remains heavily reliant upon international gas imports. In fact, gas in the UK accounted for 40% of its total electricity generation, whilst making up over 85% of domestic heating supply.
The need to make electricity generation affordable is the most pressing issue in public discourse, with consumers ranking low-cost generation as the ‘the most important goal over all other issues’. Considering the heavily inflated gas and oil prices and the resultant ‘cost of living crisis’, the UK government has released its ‘Powering Up Britain’ strategy outlining the clarion call for ‘cheaper, cleaner, domestic sources of energy’.
Sustainability:
The final element, and the most important one for achieving SDG 7, is the sustainability of electricity generation. The UK is under a plethora of both domestic and international climate obligations to increase the penetration of renewable energy in the grid. This increase is not only paramount to the achievement of our obligations under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, but the UK is also under a legal obligation to ensure its climate regulations are adequate. The 2022 Friends of the Earth case saw the government’s ‘net-zero strategy’ being struck down by the court as it was deemed insufficient to meet its climate obligations under the 2008 Climate Change Act.
As a result, the UK is under significant pressure, both internally and externally, to increase the share of renewable energy generation in the grid. In 2021, 40% of the UK’s total electricity generation was from renewable sources – a figure that has grown annually since 1991, when the share of renewable energy sat at just 2%. Again, this need to increase renewable energy generation must be balanced with both the security and affordability of the electricity if it is to make any significant impact on the UK’s targets.
Conclusions:
Subsequently, the ‘energy trilemma’ represents the main three competing interest governing the UK’s electricity sector. While all three have, historically, been at odds with each other, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war may have harmonised the three elements to a certain extent. The soaring gas prices and the unreliability of the international energy market have demonstrated that domestically generated, renewable energy may be the solution. If this is to be the case, as recent government policy suggests, then the three competing elements of the ‘energy trilemma’ may be not so incongruent after all.
By Joseph Trim